•  Long term civil wars
•  Violent societies
•  Ethnic tensions

Have a look at the animation Wake Up, Freak Out - then Get a Grip which links climate change and conflict        

There are already plenty of wars and lower level conflicts.

According to Ploughshares there were 30 armed conflicts during 2008. Most of these  are internal wars in the poorest countries.

Some facts about these:

•  Difficult to distinguish between combatants and others.
•  High civilian death rates - typically 80-90% (WWI 5%)
•  Rarely definite start and end points - don't usually end in stable settlements
•  Tend to last 5-7 years
•  Typically cost $64b
•  20% of civil wars are relapses
•  Cause huge disruption - disproportionate numbers of refugees

Paul Collier in his important book, The Bottom Billion, has identified 58 small countries with major problems of poverty and conflict.

He has done considerable research into factors linked to civil war and coups and found they key factors are:

•  Low income,
•  Slow growth
•  Dependence on primary products

A typical pattern is: warlords recruiting poor and uneducated young people for whom fighting offers the only hope of wealth. The warlords are typically doing deals with multinationals like mining companies, trying to get control of natural resources.

United Nations Environment Programme 2007 Report

This was a report produced for the Climate Conference in Bali.

To see the Report

It suggests four main causes of possible conflicts:

•  Degradation of freshwaters
•  Decline in food production
•  Increase in storm and flood disasters
•  Environmentally induced migration

Areas at increased risk of insecurity include

•  Northern and Southern Africa alongside countries in the Sahel region and the Mediterranean
•  Central Asia;
•  India, Pakistan and Bangladesh;
•  China;
•  Parts of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico
•  Andean and Amazonian regions of Latin America.

Water

Climate change is jeopardising already fragile freshwater sources across the world.  Water is also a factor in conflict. When countries and corporations abuse water resources, tensions are raised as neighbouring countries lose out. With climate change comes a growing risk of international water conflict.

Right now there is no globally recognised framework to enable countries to work together to look after shared waters like rivers and lakes. The World Development Movement is calling on the Government to ratify the UN convention on watercourses and use its global influence to ensure that others do the same.

To see the World Wildlife Fund Report

 Other reading

Christian Aid report:

Human Tide - the Real Migration Crisis

At least one billion people risk fleeing their homes over next 4 decades

Droughts, floods, war plus rich countries taking land for food/biofuels

To see the report

International Alert Report on Conflict & Climate Change 2007

To see the report

What we can do:

•  Keep global warming below 2°C. Yes to renewable energy and'no' to coal.

•  Work to tackle problems of the poorest and most at risk (often simple like water storage)

•  Support international conventions/charters

•  Local, sustainable and fair policies

•  Get the issues debated